I'm not going to pretend to know how the committee makes their decisions today, but I do know how I would do it.
Step 1: Eliminate the non-contenders. We start off with well over 100 teams and 12 spots to fill, so let's get rid of a lot of them at once with a simple criterium: no team with more than 3 losses should be in. I think it's reasonable to say that the best team in the country won at least 75% of their games. This eliminates over 100 teams, bringing us down to 32.
Step 2: Enter the inarguable teams. I don't think anybody who has watched this season could make a legitimate argument against the following teams being in (we'll seed them later): Indiana, Georgia, Ohio St, Texas Tech, and Oregon. This brings us to 5 in, 7 spots to fill, and 27 teams in contention.
Step 3: Fulfill obligations: The top 5 conference champions have to be in this somewhere. We've got three already (Indiana, Georgia, and Texas Tech)) and we eliminated 3 more in step one (Duke, Boise St, and Western Michigan), which leaves us with James Madison, Kennesaw St, and Tulane. Of these three, Kennesaw lost the most games and played in the weakest conference. Also, by my strength of record (I can explain it upon request, but this post is going to be long enough already), JMU and Tulane blow Kennesaw out of the water, so they're in, but Kennesaw St is still in contention for an at large bid for now. We have 7 spots filled, 5 to go and 25 teams waiting for the word.
Step 4: Separating contenders from pretenders: only 20% of those left can get in, so it's time for cuts based on more than just the win-loss record- ones that don't require comparing resumes. I'm going to start with what I perceive to be the weakest conference and work my way up. C-USA: Kennesaw St is cut. MAC: Nobody got past step 1. Sun Belt: ODU is cut. JMU is already in. Pac 12/Indies: UConn is cut. Mountain West: UNLV, San Diego St, and New Mexico are cut. AAC: Navy and South Florida are cut. ACC: Virginia is cut. Big 12: Houston and Arizona are cut. Big 10 and SEC: not cuts. This leaves Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, USC, Michigan, BYU, Utah, Miami, Georgia Tech, and North Texas. 14 teams for 5 spots.
Miami and Ga Tech have an uphill battle given that both teams in their conference championship have been eliminated, but they are being judged as individual teams and were only left out said championship due to tiebreakers. USC and Michigan also have uphill battles for the opposite reason: this isn't supposed to be the Big 10 tournament and that conference has three teams in already.
Step 5: Greater analysis: Ranking the teams based on my previously mentioned strength of record, they shake out to BYU, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, North Texas, Alabama, Notre Dame, Miami, Utah, Vandy, USC, Michigan, Texas, Ga Tech. This isn't any final judgment, just an easy way for me to put them in some sort of order without resorting to randomness or alphabetical.
Georgia Tech is 0-1 against teams that made it past step 1. Their signature win is at 7-5 Duke. That and a 9-3 record add up to something less than the top 12.
Texas is 9-3, but in all fairness, 2 of those losses were to teams that got into the playoffs on step 2. They are 3-0 against teams that have made it to step 5. (Oklahoma, A&M, and Vandy).
Michigan is 9-3 and 0-3 against teams that made it past step 1. I think it's fair to cut them at this point.
USC is 9-3, but their losses are a 2 pointer at Illinois, at Notre Dame, and at Oregon. Their win over Michigan means I'm not ready to cut them right now, but there probably won't be room for them in the tournament.
Vanderbilt's 2 losses came against teams that have made it to step 5 (the teams I'm currently comparing them to), and their wins generally looked more impressive at the time than they do now, looking back. They're out of contention.
I like Utah. I really do. A couple of my best friends are Utah fans. But when they had a big chance to impress, they failed. The main reason they've gotten this far is that their 10 wins were against decent to good competition and were by large margins for the most part. Getting stomped by Texas Tech and losing the Holy War in their 2 games against Step 1 teams suggests that they're just a little short of being the best.
Miami's 2 losses were both against good teams (8-4) by a combined 9 points. They also have some impressive wins including Notre Dame, USF, and Pitt. Their 4 games have been by at least 17 points each. I'm not quite ready to put them in yet.
Notre Dame is on a ten game winning streak against a wide spectrum of opponents at various talent levels. Only two of those wins were by less than 20 points and one of those was against Step 5 team USC. Even their 2 losses are quality, against two teams I'm comparing them to: Miami and Texas A&M, by a combined 4 points.
Alabama would not be punished for losing in their conference if they had shown up for it. It's hard to leave out a team that beat Georgia, Vandy, Missouri, and Tennessee, but that first week loss to Florida St and their performance in the SEC Championship leaves a very bad taste in the mouth.
North Texas went 1-2 against Step 1 teams and when I'm looking at that and debating whether a team's best win is over WMU (as a conference champion) or Navy, I'm not seeing a great playoff resume. They're cut.
Oklahoma lost to Texas and Ole Miss- hardly a death sentence. They beat Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri, and Michigan, which makes up for it. It's hard to say they're out, but I'm not ready to put them in. If either of their losses were closer or if that win over Alabama (or even LSU) had been bigger, I'd probably be ready.
Texas A&M beat Notre Dame and lost to Texas. Some of their wins against opponents with less than .500 records were less than dominant, but 11-1 against an SEC schedule and Notre Dame is good enough to be in.
Change a few teams' names and I can say the same thing about Ole Miss as I said about Texas A&M. Their biggest detriment is that Lane Kiffin won't be there for the postseason. Since I'm more interested in what I see on the field than what I read in the papers, I say that they should be in.
I could go back and forth on BYU for a while. Both of their losses are against the same team, which got into the tournament on step 2. At the same time, they seemed to really struggle against teams they should have destroyed and those losses were by a wide margin. I'll have to reserve judgment,
Step 6: Finishing the job. I now have 7 teams (BYU, Oklahoma, Alabama, Notre Dame, Miami, USC, and Texas) for 3 spots. At this point, I believe that the most sensible thing to do is look at head to head matchups. Notre Dame beat USC, but Miami beat Notre Dame and won by greater margins against their common opponents. Oklahoma beat Alabama, but Texas beat Oklahoma, but Alabama had a better showing than Texas against every common opponents not named Oklahoma (even their loss to Georgia was by less than Texas's loss to them.) I'm ready to put Miami in and cut USC. Each of Texas's losses would be okay in a vacuum (it's hard to win at Florida), but add them together and throw in that they needed overtime to beat Kentucky and Mississippi St, and I just don't see a championship resume.
This leaves Notre Dame, Alabama, BYU, and Oklahoma for the last two spots. While I could justify any combination of these teams going in, I side with Oklahoma and Notre Dame.
This is how I would seed them.
#1 Indiana (the only team that absolutely needs to be in to call it a true championship), #2 Ohio St, # 3 Georgia, #4 Texas Tech, #5 Ole Miss, #6 Oregon, #7 Texas A&M, #8 Oklahoma, #9Miami, #10 Notre Dame, #11 Tulane, #12 James Madison.
